MPdB > 2017 election> interesting seats

Interesting Seats

There will be many lists and analyses of key seats, key marginals and target seats. Some will be summarised here and may give rise to a Top Five (or more).

The sortable table below summarises the key seat pieces that follow. An explanation of the columns:

Rank Seat Dec Loc MP Party 2nd 3rd Maj% Cited Cite# Notes
1 Twickenham 04:00 E lo Mathias, Tania Con     3.3% Tim*2, Tel 2 Vince Cable standing. VC won, maj. 14.7%
2 Shipley 05:00 E yh Davies, Philip Con Lab UKIP 19% MPdB 1 WEP standing and got 1.9% vote share.
3 Ealing Central 05:00 E lo Huq, Rupa Lab Con LibDem 0.54% BBC, Tim, Buz 3 majority <1%, no UKIP. Rupa won, maj. 24.9%
4 Croydon Central 03:00 E lo Barwell, Gavin Con Lab UKIP 0.31% BBC 1 majority <1% Gavin came 2nd, Labour maj. 9.9%
5 Berwickshire R&S 04:30 S Kerr, Calum SNP Con LibDem 0.60% BBC, Tim*2 2 majority <1%. Calum 2nd, Tory maj. 21.1%
6a Houghton & Sunderland South 23:00 E ne Phillipson, Bridget Lab UKIP Con 33.6% MPdB 1 Quick count, Lab hold
6b Washington & Sunderland West 23:30 E ne Hodgson, Sharon Lab UKIP Con 35.3% MPdB 1 Quick count, Lab hold
6c Sunderland C 00:01 E ne Elliot, Julie Lab Con UKIP 26.8% MPdB 1 Quick count, Lab hold
  Putney 02:00 E lo Greening, Justine Con Lab LibDem 23.8% Tim*2 1 LibDem surge? Tory hold, vote share -9.7%, maj. 3.3%
  Hastings 03:00 E se Rudd, Amber Con Lab UKIP 9.4% Tim 1 Tory hold maj. 346 - 0.6%
  Dumfriesshire 04:00 S Mundell, David Con SNP Lab 1.5% Tim 1 single Scot Con, Tory hold, vote +9.6%
  Barrow 04:00 E nw Woodcock, John Lab Con UKIP 1.8% Tim 1 Lab hold maj. 209, 0.4%
  Gower 03:00 W Davies, Byron Con Lab UKIP 0.06% BBC 1 majority <1%, Lab Gain, maj. 7.2%
  Derby North 03:00 E em Solloway, Amanda Con Lab UKIP 0.09% BBC 1 majority <1%, Lab Gain, Maj. 4.1%
  Chester 02:30 E nw Matheson, Christian Lab Con UKIP 0.18% BBC 1 majority <1%, Lab Hold, vote +13.5%
  Ynys Mon 02:00 W Owen, Albert Lab Plaid Con 0.66% BBC 1 majority <1%, Lab Hold, vote +10.7%
  Vale of Clywd 01:30 W Davies, James Con Lab UKIP 0.67% BBC 1 majority <1% Labour Gain maj 2,379
  Brentford 05:00 E lo Cadbury, Ruth Lab Con UKIP 0.81% BBC 1 majority <1%, Lab Hold maj. 12,182, 19.8%
  Bury North 03:00 E nw Nuttall, David Con Lab UKIP 0.84% BBC 1 majority <1%, Lab Gain maj. 4,375 9.1%
  Oxford West¬† 06:00 E se Blackwood, Nicola Con LibDem Lab 16.7% Tel 1 LibDem target and they won maj. 816, 1.4%
  St Albans 05:00 E e Main, Anne Con Lab LibDem 23.4% Tel 1 LibDem target, Tory Hold maj. 6,109, 10.7%
  Bath 05:00 E sw Howlett, Ben Con LibDem Lab 8.1% Tel, Tim 2 LibDem target and gain maj. 5,694 11.5%
  Boston 05:00 E em Warman, Matt Con UKIP Lab 29.6% Tim 1 brexit Con hold maj. 16,572 38.6%
  Kensington 04:30 E lo Borwick, Victoria Con Lab LibDem 21.1% Tim 1 brexit Lab gain maj. 20 - 0.1%
  Plymouth MV 04:00 E sw Mercer, Johnny Con Lab UKIP 2.4% Tim 1 brexit Tory hold maj. 5,019 11.1%
  Stoke North 06:00 E wm Smeeth, Ruth Lab Con UKIP 12.5% Tim 1 brexit Labour hold maj. 2,359 5.6%
  Hull East 03:00 E yh Turner, Karl Lab UKIP Con 29.4% Tim 1 brexit Lab hold maj. 10,396 28.4%
  Mansfield 04:00 E em Meale, Alan Lab Con UKIP 11.3% Tim 1 brexit Tory Gain maj. 1,057 2.1%
  Ashfield 04:00 E em De Piero, Gloria Lab Con UKIP 18.6% Tim 1 brexit Lab Hold maj. 441 0.9%
  Clacton 04:30 E e [Carswell, Douglas] Ind Con Lab 7.8% Tim 1 Aaron Banks dropped out Tory "Gain" maj. 15,828 35.9%
  Ipswich 04:00 E e Gummer, Ben Con Lab UKIP 7.7% Tim 1 Brexit Lab Gain maj. 836 1.6%
  Cornwall North 06:30 E sw Mann, Scott Con LD UKIP 13.7% Tim 1 LibDem for 23 years, but voted Leave - Tory hold maj. 7,200 14.1%
  Thanet South 06:00 E se Mackinley, Craig Con UKIP Lab 5.7% Tim 1 No Farage, but election expenses, Tory hold maj. 6,387 12.8%
  Vauxhall 03:30 E lo Hoey, Kate Lab Con Green 26.5% Tim 1 Brexit, Lab hold maj. 20,250 36.8%
  Norwich South 04:30 E e Lewis, Clive Lab Con Green 15.8% Tim 1 Lab/LD/Lab - Labour hold maj. 15,596 30.4%
  Lancaster &F 06:00 E nw Smith, Cat Lab Con UKIP 3% Tim 1 Small majority and divided constituency. Lab hold maj. 6,661 14.5%
  Kingston &S 03:00 E lo Berry, James Con LD Lab 4.8% Tim 1 Open Britain and LibDem target. LibDem Gain maj. 4,124 6.6%
  Cambridge 05:00 E e Zeichner, Dan Lab LD Con 1.2% Tim 1 LibDem target 5% swing needed. Lab Hold, maj. 12,661. LibDem vote fell by 5.6%
  Cardiff C 06:00 W Stevens, Jo Lab LD Con 12.9% Tim 1 LibDem target 10% swing needed. Lab hold, maj. 17,196. LibDems 3rd.
  Cheltenham 03:30 E sw Chalk, Alex Con LD Lab 12.1% Tim 1 LD MP 1992-2010. Tory Hold maj. 2,569 4.5%
  Truro & F 06:30 E sw Newton, Sarah Con LD Lab 27.2% Tim 1 LD until 2010. Tory Hold maj. 3,792 6.7%
  Don Valley 04:00 E yh Flint, Caroline Lab Con UKIP 20.9% Buz 1 no UKIP. Lab Hold maj. 5,169 11.2%
  Batley &S 04:30 E yh Brabin, Tracy § Lab Con UKIP 12% Buz 1 no UKIP. Lab Hold maj. 8,961 16.7%
  Ilford North 04:30 E lo Streeting, Wes Lab Con UKIP 1.2% Buz 1 no UKIP. Lab Hold maj. 9,639 18.2%
  Hampstead &K 03:00 E lo Siddiq, Tulip Lab Con LD 2.1% Buz 1 no UKIP. Lab Hold maj. 15,560 26.6%
  Eltham 04:00 E lo Efford, Clive Lab Con UKIP 3.9% Buz 1 no UKIP. Lab Hold maj. 6,296 13.6%

Where a constituency is cited more than once for the same reason, especially by the same paper, it might not be counted every time.
MP and constituents at opposite ends of the Leave/Remain spectrum.
§ 2015 majority as the main parties did not stand in the by-election.


Telegraph and Buzzfeed, 13th May
UKIP are standing in 377 seats, 40% fewer than 2015. Of the of the 273 constituencies in which they are not standing. Buzzfeed has identified 29 Tory targets where UKIP's 2015 vote is greater than the incumbent's majority.
The Telgraph has picked out a few of these targets:

I'll add Clive Efford in Eltham as that is where we will be voting.


Times 2nd May
Looks at seats of interest to the LibDems in the South West.

Times 28th April
Some recycling in a piece on Battlegrounds

Battle Constit MP Maj% Notes
Lab v Con Lancaster &F Cat Smith (Lab) 3% Corbynista Smith has the 14th lowest Labour majority and a consituency that includes a university (=remain) but alsoan ex fishing port (=leave).
Con v LD Kingston &S James Berry (Con) 5% This is on Open Britain's list of targets. Although Berry was a Remainer, LibDem Ed Davey is trying to win his seat back.
Lab v LD Cambridge Dan  Zeichner (Lab) 1% LibDems hope their stance will appeal to the university and tech-park voters.
Scotland Berwickshire R&S Calum Kerr (SNP) 0.6% This seat has appeared on several lists. Given that Scotland seems to be turning into a SNP v Tory battle with Labour some way behind, a 5% swing would win the seat for the Blues and indicate a good night north of the border. Must find out how long the count took last time.
Wales Cardiff Central Jo Stevens (Lab) 12.9% The LibDems will regain the seat with a 10% swing.

Times, 23rd April


BBC 23 Apr 17, The seats that could decide the election


On 22nd April, the Telegraph reported The 'hit list' of Pro-EU Tory MPs the Lib Dems are targeting. These are:

Another list from the Times on 20th April, MPs at odds with their constituents over Brexit

Name Party Constituency MP Brexit Voters
Matt Warman Con Boston and Skegness Remain 74% leave
Victoria Borwick Con Kensington Leave 69% remain
Johnny Mercer Con Plymouth Moor View Remain 68% leave
Ruth Smeeth Lab Stoke-on-Trent North Remain 72% leave
Karl Turner Lab Kingston on Hull East Remain 72% leave
Alan Meale Lab Mansfield Remain 70% leave
Gloria De Piero Lab Ashfield Remain 70% leave

The Times, 19Apr17, written by Lucy Fisher

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